2017/18 Final Position Tracker

Based upon the games played to date and the points accrued we can extrapolate an indication of our final tally of points, so here goes…



Games Played To Date: __10___



Points Accrued To Date: __13____



Extrapolated Points Tally: 46 – 10 games played already = 36 remaining and total points to date/games played = 1.3. So 36 x 1.3 = 59.8 or a rounded 60 points
Well that was not a bad prediction, given our subsequent player selection problems, as we ended up with 56 points.
....
Survival: The average number of points needed to survive is 48. However, in the 2012/13 season Peterborough was relegated on 54 points (which is the highest number of points attained by a relegation side). In contrast, the 2015/16 season saw just 41 points being needed to escape relegation! In the majority of seasons 51 points was good enough to stay up, but that is exactly what Blackburn managed last season, so they must be considered unfortunate to have been relegated. QPR’s projected points tally is 60 points
  
Lots of clubs at the bottom end had less than the 48 point average to survive, but the three teams relegated managed to hit the low point: Barnsley & Burton on 41 points and Sunderland on a shocking 37 points. Perhaps with three better sides next season we will find it tougher?


League Champions: Looking back over the past 29 seasons, when the league returned to a 24-team format, the average points required to win the league is 88. However, in the last four years teams have needed 90 points or more to lift the trophy; whereas in the 2012/13 season just 80 points secured the title! QPR’s projected points tally is 60 points
.  The average points tally of 88 points was well exceeded by Wolves with their 99 points, and even second place Cardiff managed 90 points.


Automatic Promotion: On average, over the past 29 seasons 83 points were required, although in recent years the figure has been higher. When Brighton missed out on goal difference to Middlesbrough they had 89 points. However, in other seasons, 75 points has been good enough to secure promotion, as happened in the 1993/94 campaign. QPR’s projected points tally is 60 points
  The trend towards a higher points tally being required continued, with Wolves on 99 points and Cardiff on 90 points 


Play-offs: On average 73 points has been needed to get that sixth place and thus participate in the Play-offs. So when Wolves finished in seventh place with 78 points that would have been enough in every other season. Instead they were tied with fifth placed Brentford. In other years, such as 2005/06, a total as low as 68 points would have been enough! QPR’s projected points tally is 60 points
  The 2005/6 total of 68 points would have seen you miss this season's Play-Offs, but then again so would the average points tally of 73 points: Fulham (88); A.Villa (83); Middlesbrough (76); Derby (75). I felt Fulham played the best football of these, so i hope they get the third promotion slot!


So, to sum up, on current form we would not be relegated, but neither would be contending for either automatic promotion or a Play-off place. If we are to consider QPR’s projected points tally is 60 points against last season’s table positions we would achieve…. 14th (where we currently reside)! Can I suggest that the return of Hall, Cousins, Lynch and, eventually, Onuoha will make a positive difference to our league position (even if only in terms of quality cover); but any significant improvement will only come through existing strikers playing better or a new striker in the January window. As I mentioned, stats can lie, but does 14th league position sound about right for the club at this stage in its development or not?
 Would you be happy with that at the season end?